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Since the probability of losing is equivalent to 1 (or 100%) minus the probability of winning, we arrive at the following simplification: Once the bettor has found the expected value they must decide how much of their capital to bet. The 18 th century mathematician Daniel Bernoulli understood that only the foolhardy make decisions about how much to risk based on the objective expected value without regard to the subjective consequences of the bet, that is to say the desirability of what is to be gained (or lost). This subjective desirability is known as utility. Win Rate 97.41% While not all offshore casinos offer their got grátis services to UK players, many do. The first one contains €10,000 in cash. The second chest contains either €20,000 in cash or nothing; we are unsure which but each option is equally likely. You are now asked to take one of the chests. Which one would you choose? This is a classic utility puzzle. Mathematically, both of these chests have the same expected value, that is to say, €10,000. If you could repeat this game over and over again forever, it would make no difference which chest you picked. However, in this game you are only allowed to play once.
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